(My Original Blog Post: http://ping.fm/nhfgI)
Gurumurthy Kalyanaram asked:
The probability that Obama wins the presidential election in November seems to be quite robust. Here is why - (1) based on public scrutiny, is that Obama is more likely to keep all the conditions (the Michigan becoming obvious seems close but Obama is taking 's sense of) that that Kerry won in 2004. That give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add in Iowa that this is almost certain to go Obama - 7 electoral votes. That elasticity Obama 259 electoral votes. On the one hand, McCain - at this stage - is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost certain to lose the Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio ( 20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes) and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) - there is considerable doubt whether McCain can hold these conditions. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes. (2) the arithmetic is the most coercive. Repeatedly, and in much public scrutiny about 37-38 percent of likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as Republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The extent of preference of Newsweek showing that about 55 percent of voters identified as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.) Obama is that McCain presupponenti get 80 percent of their votes for the party, the differential gain Obama to be about 6.5 percent. Vote in the crossroads of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama 'cable general s would be about 5 per cent. The only caveat is the Bradley effect-more wild-potential represents about 5-7 percent. (3) What adds to the probability of Obama 's victory is the other three elements: the enormous enthusiasm among the carboxymethyl and very damped behavior of the Republicans (enthusiasm translates into the highest percentage of votes and the largest mobilization of the electorate, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and carboxymethyl high as 30 points), the approval ratings of extraordinary low (in the low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country head in the wrong direction (over 64-70 per cent Americans say that.)
The probability that Obama wins the presidential election in November seems to be quite robust. Here is why - (1) based on public scrutiny, is that Obama is more likely to keep all the conditions (the Michigan becoming obvious seems close but Obama is taking 's sense of) that that Kerry won in 2004. That give Obama 252 electoral votes. Add in Iowa that this is almost certain to go Obama - 7 electoral votes. That elasticity Obama 259 electoral votes. On the one hand, McCain - at this stage - is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost certain to lose the Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio ( 20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes) and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) - there is considerable doubt whether McCain can hold these conditions. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes. (2) the arithmetic is the most coercive. Repeatedly, and in much public scrutiny about 37-38 percent of likely voters identify themselves as Democrats and about 30 percent as Republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The extent of preference of Newsweek showing that about 55 percent of voters identified as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.) Obama is that McCain presupponenti get 80 percent of their votes for the party, the differential gain Obama to be about 6.5 percent. Vote in the crossroads of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama 'cable general s would be about 5 per cent. The only caveat is the Bradley effect-more wild-potential represents about 5-7 percent. (3) What adds to the probability of Obama 's victory is the other three elements: the enormous enthusiasm among the carboxymethyl and very damped behavior of the Republicans (enthusiasm translates into the highest percentage of votes and the largest mobilization of the electorate, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and carboxymethyl high as 30 points), the approval ratings of extraordinary low (in the low 30s) of President Bush and the perception that the country head in the wrong direction (over 64-70 per cent Americans say that.)
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